The global energy sector is undergoing a profound transformation, characterized by slowing demand growth, the accelerating rise of renewable energy, and the emergence of electricity as the dominant energy carrier. According to the International Energy Agency's (IEA) Global Energy Review 2026, all major energy fuels and technologies grew in 2025—but at very different rates.
Global energy demand growth slowed to 1.3% in 2025, just below the average for the previous decade. This represents a notable slowdown from 2024, when demand increased by 2%. The IEA attributes this slowdown to slower economic growth, slower growth in energy-intensive industries in some regions, lower cooling demand, and faster efficiency improvements.
Perhaps the most significant development is the emergence of solar PV as the largest single source of global energy demand growth, meeting more than 25% of higher demand in 2025—the first time on record that a modern renewable source has contributed the largest share of global energy demand growth. Low-emissions sources combined—solar, wind, nuclear, hydropower, and other renewables—contributed nearly 60% of the growth in global demand.
The IEA's World Energy Outlook 2025 declares photovoltaics "the most economical technology in the history of energy" in terms of competitiveness, installation speed, and widespread access, projecting a doubling of capacity over the next five years. The IEA's Renewables 2025 report sees global renewable power capacity increasing by 4,600 gigawatts (GW) by 2030—roughly the equivalent of adding China, the European Union, and Japan's total power generation capacity combined. Clean-energy use is projected to surge dramatically, with nuclear power rising 39% by 2035, solar by 344%, and wind by 178%. The IEA links this expansion to sharp cost reductions since 2010, with prices for solar, wind, and battery technologies falling by between 70% and 90%.
Electricity demand growth is accelerating. The IEA reaffirms that "the world has entered the Age of Electricity," with electricity demand growing at well over twice the rate of energy demand. Growth of nearly 3% in electricity demand remained above the average of 2.8% over the last decade. Global electricity demand is projected to increase by 4.5% in 2025 over 2024 and is expected to grow at least 2.8% per year through 2030.
The drivers of electricity demand growth are diverse. In the United States, data centres made up half of all growth in electricity use. Investment in data centres is expected to reach $80 billion in 2025, with a tripling of electricity consumption by data centres by 2035—85% concentrated in the US, China, and Europe.
Oil demand growth continued to slow in 2025, increasing by 0.65 million barrels per day (0.7%), down from 2024's already muted 0.75 mb/d of growth. Electric car sales continued their rapid growth, climbing over 20% to more than 20 million units—approximately one quarter of new car sales in 2025. Gas demand growth slowed markedly in 2025, rising by around 1%, down from 2.8% in 2024.
The IEA projects that global energy investment will reach $3.4 trillion in 2026, a slight increase year-on-year. Around $2.2 trillion is expected to go to grids, storage, low-emissions fuels, nuclear, renewables, efficiency, and electrification, while approximately $1.2 trillion is set to be invested in oil, natural gas, and coal.
The China Surtax Remission Order (2024) represents a significant policy development for the stainless steel and aluminum sectors, offering Canadian importers relief from the 25% surtax. The Order, effective January 31, 2025, allows for the relief of surtaxes paid or payable under the China Surtax Order (2024), in respect of eligible goods referred to in Schedule 1 or 2. For the stainless steel industry, which is closely tied to energy infrastructure development, this relief provides an important opportunity to maintain cost-competitive supply chains.
However, the IEA also sounds a note of caution. The latest World Energy Outlook 2025 marks "a worrying turning point in the global energy debate" as the global energy transition shows signs of slowing, raising climate and financial risks for fuel-importing countries. Global growth in energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions slowed further in 2025, rising by around 0.4%. While this represents progress, the pace of decarbonization remains insufficient to meet international climate goals.
Sources :
IEA, "Global Energy Review 2026 – Key Findings"
IEA, "Renewables 2025 – Executive Summary"
Atradius Dutch State Business, "Energy Outlook fuel-reliant nations: Green now or grieve later"
IEA, "World Energy Investment 2026"
EIBI, "IEA says world on track for fossil fuel peak as renewables surge"
